From Promise to Performance: What South Africa’s SONAs Delivered, 2022–2026

The accountability question

The original 2022 analysis read SONA through the development-economics idea of a ‘big push’: when electricity, rail, ports, water, digital access and state capability are complementary, isolated improvements do not generate their full return. That framework still fits. What changes in 2026 is that the commitments are now old enough to evaluate.

A fair assessment must distinguish three things. An announcement is a policy intention. A reform milestone—such as legislation, an auction or a new market rule—is an institutional output. The outcome is what firms and households experience: reliable power, lower logistics costs, working infrastructure, investment, jobs and sustainable public finances. The scorecards above judge the record primarily on the latter two.

What was genuinely delivered

Several 2022 commitments produced identifiable results. The long-delayed high-demand spectrum auction was completed. Regulatory changes opened electricity generation to a large pipeline of private projects. Water-use licensing became faster, skilled-visa rules were modernised and passenger-rail corridors returned to service. Freight rail and ports were opened progressively to private participation while core infrastructure remained publicly owned.

The energy turnaround is the clearest example of complementary reform. The Energy Action Plan, private generation, improved Eskom plant performance, debt relief and stronger central coordination did not work in isolation. Together they sharply reduced load shedding and created the basis for a more competitive electricity market. By May 2026 Eskom had recorded a year without load shedding, although transmission investment, municipal arrears and completion of the market restructuring remain live risks.

The fiscal record also contains a real achievement. The primary balance moved into surplus in 2023/24, as the 2022 Budget had intended. S&P’s 2025 upgrade, Fitch’s 2026 upgrade and Moody’s positive outlook show that external assessments have begun to recognise the improvement in fiscal management and reform momentum.

Where outcomes fell short

The strongest evidence against declaring victory is the growth record. Real GDP grew by 0.8% in 2023, 0.5% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. The first quarter of 2026 added 0.5% quarter on quarter, but unemployment increased to 32.7%. The 2025 ambition to lift growth above 3% has therefore not been achieved.

The debt target also slipped. In 2022, Treasury expected gross loan debt to stabilise at 75.1% of GDP in 2024/25. The 2026 Budget now places the peak at 78.9% in 2025/26. Stabilisation is significant, but it came one year later and 3.8 percentage points higher than the earlier projection.

Most importantly, the interest bill has not yet released resources for development. Debt-service costs absorb 21.3% of revenue in 2025/26—more than the roughly 20% warning embedded in the 2022 medium-term outlook. The ratio is projected to decline, but until that decline is realised the public finances remain exposed to weak growth, borrowing costs and implementation shocks.

• Logistics reform has started, but rail and port performance has not yet returned to the level required for export-led growth.
• Infrastructure allocations are large, yet project preparation, procurement and municipal execution continue to delay usable assets.
• Water and local government have become the next binding constraints, demonstrating how one repaired network can expose weakness in another.
• The labour market remains the decisive social test: reform has not yet generated employment at the scale required.

The budget dynamics behind the speeches

SONA sets the programme; the Budget reveals the constraint. Between 2022 and 2026, the fiscal strategy remained consistent: generate a primary surplus, stabilise debt and improve the composition of spending towards infrastructure. The first two steps have advanced, while the third is still being tested in delivery.

The 2026 Budget projects the main budget deficit narrowing from 4.5% of GDP in 2025/26 to 2.9% by 2028/29, gross debt declining to 76.5% of GDP and debt-service costs easing to 20.2% of revenue. These are forecasts, not outcomes. They depend on expenditure discipline, revenue performance, lower risk premia and an economy that does not fall back into stagnation.

The composition of consolidation matters. A debt strategy that suppresses maintenance and capital formation can improve a short-run balance while weakening the future tax base. The better route is to remove waste, protect essential services and execute high-return infrastructure that raises productivity. The shift towards capital spending and more disciplined public-private partnerships is therefore promising, but must be judged project by project.

A conditional debt-sustainability verdict

The verdict is not ‘achieved’ or ‘failed’. South Africa has achieved fiscal-flow repair: revenue now exceeds non-interest spending, and the debt ratio is stabilising. It has not yet achieved growth-led sustainability: the debt stock continues to rise in rand terms, interest remains the fastest-growing pressure on the budget, and economic growth is still too weak.

The distinction matters. A primary surplus can stop the debt ratio from accelerating, but only sustained nominal growth above the effective interest burden can create comfortable fiscal space. The country is safer than it was in 2022, yet the margin for error remains narrow.

For the 2026 programme, the right test is implementation. Track freight volumes and port dwell times; generation, transmission and electricity prices; municipal collection and water losses; public investment completed rather than allocated; the primary surplus; debt service as a share of revenue; fixed investment; and employment. Those indicators will tell us whether the SONA cycle has moved from promise to performance.